Insights from the January-June 2024 sales and impact data

Insights from the January-June 2024 sales and impact data

Authors: Oliver Reynolds (GOGLA), Serra Paixao (GOGLA) 

Contributors: Andrew Kent (ESMAP), Jakub Vrba (Efficiency for Access), Joseph Thomas (Efficiency for Access), Leo Blyth (Efficiency for Access) 

This blogpost replaces the Semi-annual Global Off-Grid Solar Market Report for the period January-June 2024. Starting in 2023, GOGLA, with support from Efficiency for Access and the World Bank Group’s Lighting Global program, publishes an Annual Global Off-Grid Solar Market Report after collecting a full twelve months of sales data. The July-December and annual 2024 report will be available in early May 2025. 

The latest sales and impact data is out! Read on to find out what we have observed in the January-June 2024 period. If your company shared data, don’t forget that you can access your personalized interactive dashboard at which compares yours sales against the aggregation of all others at data.gogla.org.

Global Trends: A potential plateau in solar energy kit sales in 2024?

Sales data for the first half of 2024 indicates a potential plateauing of solar energy kit sales. With total volumes sold in the first half of 2024 being just 2% higher than in the first half of 2023. Key factors that play a role in explaining this trend include: 

• Lower demand following price increases in several key markets linked to currency devaluations 

• Inflation remained significant in several countries in the first half of 2024 worsening the affordability issue 

• Subsidy programs coming to an end or pauses between programs in key markets 

Sales reported during the first half of 2024 are 5% lower than sales in the second half of 2023. This is unsurprising given there is strong market seasonality, notably in many Sub-Saharan African markets, with lower sales in the first half of each year when compared to the second half.   

Of the 4.4 million units sold in the first half of 2024, 2.9 million (66%) were sold cash (see Figure 2). This is a 2% decrease compared to the second half of 2023, but a 12% increase compared to the first half of 2023. The other 1.5 million sales (34%) were PAYGo. These sales are 10% lower compared to the second half of 2023 and 12% lower than the first half of 2023. 

Year-on-year, sales of lanterns, multi-light systems and small SHS (11-20Wp) have grown, while sales of larger systems have decreased (see Figures 3 and 4).  

A plateau in sales will also eventually translate into a plateau in the number of people benefiting from improved energy access via off-grid solar as shown in our impact data (see Figure 5). Indeed, without sales growth, the number of newly reached customers will not exceed the theoretical replacement rate for systems reaching their end of life.

Challenges in the solar energy kit sales are also mirrored in the sales of household appliances, notably TV sales in Sub-Saharan Africa: 

• TV sales decreased by 49% compared to the second half of 2023, dropping to just 111,280 units sold (Figure 6). TV sales took a hit in both East and West Africa which can also be tied to the lower sales of larger SHS which are sold alongside bundles or which can be used to power them. 

• Fan sales dropped by 9% compared to the first half of 2023 to 717,242 units sold (Figure 7). This trend is tied to poor sales in both Pakistan and Nigeria, the largest markets for these appliances in the data reported. Distributors in South Asia stockpile fans in the early part of the year before the hottest months arrive. It is therefore not surprising that sales in the first half of 2024 are significantly higher than sales in the second half of 2023, given that the data tracks sales made by manufacturers and not distributors. 

Productive appliance sales stagnate.  

• 2,256 refrigeration units (fridges and freezers) were sold in the first half of 2024 (Figure 9). This represents a 35% decrease compared to the previous reporting round. 

• Solar water pump sales had shown signs of growth in 2022 and 2023. Data from the first half of 2024 indicates a possible stagnation. The data presented in the chart below (Figure 8) excludes sales reported by companies reporting solar water pump sales for the first time, to allow for comparability. When including all companies, 99,764 units of solar water pumps were reported to be sold in the first half of 2024. 

Regional Trends

East Africa sees continued growth in sales of SEKs but a sharp fall in appliance sales 

Almost 3 million units of off-grid solar energy kits have been sold in East Africa between January and June 2024.  East Africa represents 68% of global solar energy kit sales in the first half of the year. In contrast to the global aggregate average market rate of change, these sales represent a 17% increase compared to the second half of 2023 and a 34% increase compared to the first half of 2023 (Figure 10).  While PAYGo sales continued to grow in East Africa, cash sales and sales of smaller products that typically do not include appliances are mostly driving the overall regional growth in sales. While sales of larger solar home systems, typically above 50Wp, decreased. 

Appliance sales decreased by 44% compared to both the first and second halves of 2023, largely a consequence of a drop in TV sales. During the first half of 2024, the total recorded number of key appliances sold in East Africa reached 71,127 units (Figure 11): 

• TVs represent close to 86% of key appliances sold in East Africa. TV sales in the region in the first half of 2024 are 39% lower compared to the second half of 2023 and 40% lower compared to the first half of 2023. Lower TV sales are the main factor for the decreased appliance sales in the region Inflation and currency devaluations leading to increased prices for end-users are the primary cause. 

• Fan sales in East Africa have always represented a very small share of appliance sales. The decrease in sales from 2023 to 2024 is in part due to a decrease in the number of companies reporting fans sales. 

• Solar water pump sales in East Africa during the first half of 2024 reached 8,625 units which is 5% lower than during the second half of 2023 and 16% higher than the first half of the same year.  

• 769 refrigeration units were sold in East Africa in the first half of 2024, a 28% decrease compared to H2 2023 and 13% decrease compared to H1 2023. 

West Africa: Sales of solar energy kits and appliances drop sharply in Nigeria 

516,000 units of solar energy kits were sold in West Africa in the first half of 2024, a 42% decrease compared to the second half of 2023 and a 39% decreased compared to the first half of 2023 (Figure 12).  

The significant decrease in West Africa sales has been largely driven by Nigeria, which makes up 70% of regional sales and where sales have fallen by half. The Nigeria Electrification Program played a key role in accelerating growth in Nigeria and the ending of it’s first phase originally led to a slight decrease in sales in 2023. This has been compounded by an increase in prices following the devaluation of the Naira causing a much sharper drop in sales. 

191,700 units of household appliances were sold in West Africa in the first half of 2024, a 28% decrease compared to the second half of 2023 and a 32% decreased compared to the first half of 2023 (Figure 13). As in East Africa,this is mainly due to a continued decrease in household appliances sales, especially TV sales in Nigeria:  

• TV sales in West Africa in the first half of 2024 decreased 57% compared to the second half of 2023 and 55% compared to  the first half of 2023.  

• Fan sales have proved more resilient and only decreased 9% compared to the second half of 2023 and 17% compared to the sales in the first half of 2023.  

Productive use appliance sales decreased compared to the first half of 2023.: 

• Solar water pump sales decrease from 2,828 units sold in the first half of 2023to just 625 units sold in the last six months. Further data collection will be needed to assess whether the surge in sales of solar water pumps in 2022-2023 was a one-time peak or part of a sustainable growth trend. 

• 1,092 refrigeration units were sold in the region in the first half of 2024, a 26% decrease compared to the second half of 2023 and a 35% decrease compared to the first half of 2023. 

South Asia: Solar energy kits sales continue to decrease, while Pakistan records seasonal peak in fan sales 

In H1 2024, sales of off-grid solar energy kits in South Asia have decreased by 13% compared to the second half of 2023, totalling just over 304,300 units (Figure 14). This continues the trend of lower sales for solar lanterns and plug-n-play kits linked to increased grid electrification and a shift towards component based and hybrid solutions, which can be paired with a weak-grid connection. 

Appliance sales data in South Asia is mostly driven by fan sales in Pakistan. These follow a very strong seasonal pattern with distributors building up stock in the first half of the year in anticipation of the warmest months.  

In the first half of 2024, 548,982 fans were sold in South Asia, a 67% increase compared to the second half of 2023, but a 5% decrease compared to the previous seasonal peak in January-June 2023, which is the realistic period for comparison (Figure 15). 

Increased participation in the data collection for solar water pumps has led to an increase in sales reported which impacts both the trend for solar water pumps and for key appliances in South Asia generally. Controlling for this effect, the trend in appliance sales in South Asia would mirror that of fan sales in the region as described above. 

 

Looking forward

 

2024 annual sales are likely to be in line with 2023 annual sales. A return to the level of 2022 seems unlikely. These volumes will need to significantly increase if the industry is expected to continue it’s strong contribution towards reaching universal energy access amongst a growing population and against a backdrop of products limited lifetimes,. 

For the industry to make a significant dent in reaching those currently unconnected, it will require support in tackling the affordability challenge, as the PAYGo model alone will not be able to reach the poorest on a commercial basis. 

As highlighted earlier in the report, 2023/2024 has been a period where several RBF and subsidy programs were phased out or paused. Recent announcements by the World Bank and the African Development Bank of new programs such as the Electricity Access Scale up Project (EASP) in Uganda, Distributed Access through Renewable Energy Scale-up (DARES) Nigeria or the Accelerating Sustainable and Clean Energy Access Transformation (ASCENT) program are expected to provide a welcome boost to the industry’s efforts. However, many of the results from this may take time to materialize as there is a natural cycle to programs development, implementation and scale. 

In parallel, there is demonstrated interest in, improved understanding of, and growing support for expanding productive uses of energy as a pathway towards sustainable energy access and rural development. 

Distributed renewable energy solutions and productive appliances will also be key to strengthen the ability of communities to adapt and resist climate shocks. This will be the focus of our upcoming report. Stay tuned for more in 2025: 

• Q1: Adaptation and resilience report 

• Q2: 2024 annual sales and impact data report 

 

View or download previous sales and impact data reports: H2 2023| H1 2023| H2 2022 | H1 2022 | H2 2021 | H1 2021 | H2 2020 | H1 2020 | H2 2019 | H1 2019 | H2 2018 | H1 2018 | H2 2017 | H1 2017 | H2 2016 | H1 2016 | H2 2015.

Participating companies can access the online data platform at data.gogla.org.

Find a comprehensive overview of the methodology applied by GOGLA and partners to collect, process and analyse the sales and impact data shared here.